A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
